Nepali Congress (NC) Chair Deuba was nowhere seen gracing the annually celebrated rice planting activities taking place all over Nepal on Ashad 15(June 29 this time). Instead, he and his wife chose to be at the Balkot residence of UML Chair Oli where they spent more than two hours, probably sowing the seed of a very fast maturing variety of political crop that led to the dislodgement of Prachanda-led government soon thereafter. Indeed, this meeting of June 29, 2024 created confusion and resultant heat in the perennially fluid politics of Nepal. The confusion, however, did not last long as everything became clear by the morning of July 2, 2024.This conspiratorial act against Prachanda was so secretly and tactfully handled that he was kept in the dark till the last minute.NC leaders were vocal in expressing their disgruntlement against this government but UML top leaders never spoke in favour of changing the guard. It is interesting that amid talks of Deuba offering to make Oli the prime minister, the latter went on record denying this and stating that he would not become prime minister this year. Other senior leaders of UML also kept on repeating that there was no threat to the existing coalition. It could be that UML leaders had planned not to speak much against the government basically to check Prachanda from seriously approaching Deuba for the next government. It is said that Prachanda and Oli were suspicious of each other and thus making quiet moves accordingly. Despite the suspicion and some smell of imminent threat to government, the dramatic signing of agreement by Deuba and Oli at midnight caught Prachanda and most of his colleagues in the party off guard. Oli’s lengthy talks with Dahal at Balwatar a few hours after the mid-night agreement between NC and UML must have adequately assuaged doubts that Prachanda may have been harbouring about Oli’s move. Probably knowing Dahal as a shrewd politician who could turn the table upside down even at the slightest hint of danger, Oli must have taken the liberty of abundantly lying till the last moment. It may also be remembered that all most all of the mention- worthy leaders of UML were in favour of giving continuity to the existing coalition, with the sole exception of Shankar Pokharel who occasionally spoke in favour of the two largest parties joining hands to run state affairs. It is difficult to say whether these differing observations were a part of the political drama orchestrated by Oli or signs of an emerging countervailing faction within UML, consisting of reputed leaders like Bidya Devi Bhandari.It is a matter of common knowledge that two big parties do not cooperate to form a government in democracies but in Nepal everything is possible. Deuba has gone on record in a similar situation in the past that two major parties should not be partners in government in a democracy. These ideals\principles do not matter much because Deuba and Oli have agreed to take turn in becoming head of government, dividing the remaining period. Since Deuba approached Oli with the offer, the latter got the Position first to rule us. It, however, appears that things are not likely to move as smooth as wished by the duo.

A smart operator Prachanda decided to seek vote of confidence in the House, despite request by UML to resign. UML’s withdrawal of support and en mass resignation by its ministers could not shake Prachanda much. Mention worthy is the fact that he succeeded in winning confidence vote four times earlier and his party’s decision to seek vote of confidence one more time cannot be considered unreasonable. It is entirely up to him to either resign or seek vote of confidence within 30 days in the event of any coalition partner withdrawing support. In view of ongoing developments, formation of the wished national consensus government does not look easy and their agreement to amend the constitution and other big talks of prosperity could simply be an attempt to veil their lust for power. Dahal went on record stating that the two parties’ agreement to amend the constitution was a ploy to reverse the hard-earned gains and has threatened to launch agitation against such moves. Rabi Lamichhane, Home Minister under Prachanda, hinted that the recent arrest of some people deeply linked to Bhutanese Refugee Scandal and government’s resolve to open corruption files seemingly coincided with the NC\UML move, adding that the designer of the move wanted to save some very important people from prosecution. People want a few much- talked- about personalities to be prosecuted at the soonest but it would be naïve to expect Lamichhane,himself controversial and in deep trouble, to initiate the much-demanded action, despite his initial noise. It should not be forgotten that his party’s ministers were prepared to resign en mass but stalled the move on PM’s request. Unified Socialist Party’s decision to continue its support may have provided some relief to Prachanda who seemed weighing cost and benefit of different steps that he could initiate to effectively counter the Deuba\Oli move. Moreover, Prachanda also does not want to hurt the founder members of the existing Cartel, an informal grouping of top leaders that has been running the show since long, despite occasional struggle\quarrel amongst Cartel members for power, which Nepalis have been witnessing since long. It would be unwise, therefore, to expect people like them (Prachanda\Rabi) to initiate bold decisions in the greater interest of the country. Thanks God Oli and Deuba waited till the passage of the new budget preliminary work on which commenced during NC’s Prakash Mahat’s time and final preparation and presentation in the House was done by Maoist leader Barsha Man Pun.

Despite my earlier reluctance this time to talk and write about our annual rituals such as policy and programme of government and the budget, it would be unfair now not to touch upon the annual plan for the fiscal year 2081-82 (2024\25), which was allowed for presentation in the House on Jestha 15 by then agitating Deuba’s NC. With a total outlay of Rs. 1860 billion, the budget has allocated Rs. 342 billion under capital expenditure head and Rs. 367 billion has been set aside for financial management. Its growth target of 6 percent and revenue collection target of Rs.1260 billion are likely to remain unmet. As in the past, the budget will be downsized in the six monthly review of it, may be even earlier this time because of the change in government, and interestingly even the slashed targets would not be met as has been the case thus far. Capital expenditure remains painfully unspent and due to unsatisfactory revenue collection, governments have been increasingly taking resort to borrowing to service the debt and to meet other unproductive expenses. It may also be noted that despite acceleration in budgetary expenditure towards the end (Rs.117 billion in 23 days of the last month), only Rs. 23 billion was spent under the capital expenditure head during the period. Since the budget for the fiscal year2024\25 has not shown any appreciable departure from the past, it is most likely to walk the path already drawn by previous budgets. Very surprisingly, the government wishes to garner about Rs. 53 billion in the form of foreign grant, completely ignoring the current pathetic achievement on this front. The gap between the lofty budgetary goals and disappointing actions is seen each year. Many thought Mahat did good by linking subsidy with production, which could increase production as well as prevent misuse of subsidy if properly implemented, but now he has nothing to boast about it expect to blame Pun, his successor, for not preparing the required procedure for execution. Trading of accusations is very common in Nepal and more so in case of ministers in charge of finance where in most years one formulates the budget and somebody else from a different party implements it. Anyway, who is worried about the economic hardship faced by the people because activities of our so called top leaders solely revolve around our national game: Struggle for Power?

Expectedly, the fifth confidence vote sought by Dahal on July 12 did not go his way, paving way for President Poudel to appoint Oil the next prime minister under Article 76(2) of the constitution to form the so called national government for political stability and prosperity. Oli took the oath on 15July. Ten lawmakers from NC got Deuba’s blessing, including his much-talked-about wife, Arzoo Rana, with foreign affairs portfolio. How smooth will be his sailing is, however difficult to say because he has the Herculean task of amending the constitution, forming a national government and handling a revengeful Prachanda. It is certain that Prachanda will not initiate any action to seriously hurt the image and interest of his colleagues in the Cartel but it is also almost certain that he is not going to let the other two rulers of this country operate with ease. His observations and reported meetings with people belonging to different parties adequately point towards his eagerness to avenge the unexpected treatment meted out to him this time. Alternatively, a power\benefit sharing deal could be struck between the three rulers (Deuba, Oli and Prachanda) in the name of so called national government, which could let Deuba\Oli breathe a sigh of relief and run the show for some time, without being challenged seriously. It Is not impossible because our top leaders are known to be notoriously transactional and their support could easily flow back and forth in exchange for power\money or protection against apprehended criminal prosecution. It is, however almost certain that the rulers will not be able to keep the amendment issues confined to their desired list and self it for long because the much talked about issues of religion, monarchy, expensive federal system of governance, etc. cannot be brushed aside even if the trio decides not to touch the constitution. It may also be equally difficult to close this major issue, which has been cited by Deuba\Oli as the major reason for their intervention aimed at attaining prosperity and stability. Contrary to their expectation, however, emerging symptoms point towards creation of a more complicated and fluid situation, with strong possibility of the process of government formation being challenged both legally and politically. We wish Oli luck in sailing smooth for some months and Deuba, equipped with the agreement and his astrologer’s prediction, more luck to comfortably succeed Oli in the stipulated time period and become head of government for sixth time