Just a few days after the powerful earthquake shook Tibet region of China on January 7,2025 causing immense damage to lives and property there, Prime Minister Oli- generated political turmoil herebadly shook the yet-to-be stabilized politics of Nepal. Political damages caused by this jolt, however, have not yet come to the fore and are likely to remain unquantifiable for some time. It may be noted that Oli-generated convulsion in the form of his observation that Nepal’s constitution could be amended only in 2030 has surprised many people including leaders of coalition partner Nepali Congress (NC). While signing the deal to form the new government ousting Prachanda, the Deubas and Oli believed that political stability and economic prosperity would be achieved through amendment of the constitution and formulation and execution of economic policies and programmes by their government. Many thought, listening to them, it was simply a matter of a few months before they gave us an amended constitution. Therewas, however, no dearth of skeptics who did not want to believe what was stated in the Seven-Point Deal made public only after the Oli-led government was formed.Understandably,it is difficult for politicians to remain quiet in the light of Oli’s statement about constitutional changes as it appears to shake one of the major pillars of the seven- point pact signed between Deuba’s NC and Oli’s CPN UML.Although Nepal government and UML party have corrected PM- generated shocks\statement, the aftershocks of it are still continuing with even some notable NC leaders coming down heavily upon Oli, let alone Prachanda who has been restlessly attacking the deal and this government ever since his ouster from power some six months ago.

Dahal has been moving around the country and attending different fora to air his resentments against the government. People are lending their ears to his remarks but they are also finding it very difficult to believe that he was thrown out of power mainly because he was about ready to open corruption cases involving political personalities like Oli. He also wants people to believe that he will do the needful once back to power. The Maoist Chair, however, has not been able to convince the people that he was on the verge of opening the files because they know he had the time to act before his dislodgement. Further, he has remained very selective in attacking major politicians and their parties. He often mentions Giri Bandhu Tea State scandal in which Oli is said to be involved but hardly talks about infamous Bhutanese Refugee scandal allegedly masterminded by some unscrupulous people who bribed some NC stalwarts into getting the support. Despite some action taken against a few leaders, people feel that not enough has been done, more specifically in case of NC heavyweights. People know Deuba had an equally important role, if not more, in showing Prachanda the door but he has calculatedly chosen Oli for public thrashing, accusing him of corruption and misrule. In his deliberations now a days, he hardly mentions corruption scandals people think NC stalwarts have a lot to do with. He seems to have a firm idea at the back of his head that a transactional and flexible Deuba can be roped into cooperation with him in days ahead to form the next government, dislodging Oli. It seems Prachada is simply eyeing the chair of power and the Cartel of which he is a member along with other top leaders is still in existence and very much operational. People have understood that top leaders occasionally create a sub-group within the Cartel to dislodge a particular government and create a new one without hurting each other’s major interest. Major parties are also known to be sincere and honest in distributing\sharing amongst themselves benefits emanating from somewhat government-protected scandals of different nature and magnitude. It may be appropriate to note the observation of Jagannath Khatiwada, leader of CPN Unified Socialist that any bribe in the tune of Rs.400 million and above is shared by major political parties. This kind of truth-telling by a noted politician has bolstered the confidence of commoners like this scribe who has been talking and writing about this kind of tacit agreement between top political players of this country. Therefore, irrespective of what Prachanda or any other top leader says, initiating corruption-related legal action against a top leader or his family member by another is unthinkable. These leaders have been tried time and again.Parchanda, however, could be right in observing that the fall of Oli-led government is imminent. Many lawmakers of NC are unhappy with Oli’s remarks and the way this government is functioning. Resentment seems to be brewing even within UML one of the senior leaders of which (Vim Rawal) has been recently sacked and two central leaders of the party have been suspended for a period of six months. Many leaders in UML are also said to be in a mood to welcoming former president Bhandari in the party to address the disgruntlement against the current leadership and solidly unify the fragile party.NC lawmakers are freely airing their resentments against the government, more specifically their opinions are directed against Oli. Equally active looks their commander Deuba who, despite not looking healthy and young, has been stretching around meeting his own ministers and politicians belonging to different parties. It will be soon known whether these activities of Deuba are for cementing the foundation of thecurrent dispensation or his efforts are directed towards pulling the rug from under Oli’s weakened feet. Important thing to be noted is that political stability, promised by Deuba\Oli some six months ago, is nowhere to be seen and amending the constitution, touching upon issues of just their choice, in a short period of time is very difficult. Political forces are likely to be assertive in amendment-related matters, which is shown, amongst others, by the recent attempt of Madhes-bsed political parties to forge an alliance. It is difficult to say how successful they will be in meaningfully coming together, forgetting their divergent interest and activities, but these kind of activities can be taken as a pointer towards emergence of a situation where various forces will be exerting pressure to get the constitution amended their way. Both Deuba and Oli must have realized by now that Nepal is not going to be politically stable soon. Likewise, with no mention worthy positive signs seen in the economy thus far, their commitment of achieving prosperity is very lightly taken by people. Oli with different non-economic matters to pay serious attention to, it seems Finance minister Bishnu Poudyal has been given the entire responsibility of correcting the ailing symptoms shown by our economy since long.

Despite Bishnu Poudyal’s sincere efforts to implement the budget prepared by Maoist leader Barshaman Pun, data made available by the concerned authorities do not reflect any semblance of positive change in the economy, with the sole exception of remittance-gifted improvement in the external sector. It has been almost certain that the economy is unlikely to grow by the hoped 6 percent, which could be conveniently blamed on the damage\loss caused by the incessant rain of September 26\27, 2024.Interesting to note, however, is the concerned agency’s latest revelation that paddy production would increase by 3 to 5 percent, contrary to their earlier assessment that its production would decrease by 2 percent. These disturbing data aside, the concerned at the finance ministry must be genuinely worried looking at the six monthly progress of budget implementation as it is less than 40 percent of the target on most fronts. Capital expenditure has continued to remain pathetic, with only Rs.56.93 billion(16.16 percent of the targeted Rs.352.35 billion) spent in the six months of this FY.It may also be interesting to observe that under financial management(debt servicing) head 45 percent of the annual target was spent in the six months. Government has been allocating more funds for debt servicing than for capital expenditure. Recurrent expenditure has also registered a progress of 40 percent, spending Rs.452 billion out of the annual target of Rs.1140 billion. On the revenue front also, progress has been unsatisfactory, with only Rs.399.60 billion collected in the six months, which is only28 percent of the annual target of Rs1419.30 billion. Government, therefore, has no choice but to get into aggressive borrowing as the gap between income and expenditure (budget deficit) is widening day by day. About 44 percent of the annual borrowing target has been met. Trade deficit is on the rise, despite recent surge in export to India of palm and soybean oil. Interesting to note would be the fact that these products have been appearing as major items on either side of the trade chart and have not been doing much good to the economy. To further complicate the already difficult living condition in Nepal, inflation is also on the rise.

Looking at the situation on both fronts(economic and political),Deuba and Oli should not waste time in accepting that they have failed to deliver the promised good and no meaningful contribution is expected of them, no matter how much time they get. They have managed to get several ordinances issued ostensibly to better govern the country and create facilitating conditions in several areas but quite a few knowledgeable people are suspicious about the interest and intention behind this act of the current rulers who do not deserve any benefit of doubt. Scattered opposition parties have also come together to oppose this. Infact,people are sick and tired of these leaders and they are in no mood to trust Prachanda either because they think he belongs to the same ruling Cartel.Parchanda,however,has an opportunity to genuinely show that he is different from others and is for major change this time around. People are not for cosmetic change and they are not likely to be fooled by peps talk and false assurances anymore.Nepalis want to avoid violence to the extent possible because their preference is for a peaceful change, which is possible only when the rulers of this country cooperate. Make no mistake, the much wanted peaceful change will be less injurious even to the rulers who have failed us and our country.

Happy New Year 2025!