Two decades after Nepal was declared a federal, secular republic following the removal of the monarchy, there is now a movement on the streets calling for the reinstatement of constitutional monarchy and the abolition of the federal republic.

Thousands of people gathered in Kathmandu to welcome former King Gyanendra back to the capital from Pokhara two weeks ago (March 4), and since then, there has been a growing enthusiasm among royalist supporters.

On March 4, the King was warmly welcomed in Pokhara with people chanting slogans in his favor and unveiling a statue of former King Birendra.

Pro-monarchy demonstrations have spread throughout Nepal, with supporters of former King Gyanendra organizing bike rallies and chanting slogans to demand the return of the monarchy in the country.

Displeased with the current government under Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, protesters organized a motorbike rally from Babar Mahal to the former Royal Palace on Durbar Marg, chanting the slogan ‘Narayanhitki Khai gara, hamra raja aaudai chhan’ (vacate the Royal Palace, we are bringing our king back).

On the 75th Democracy Day on 19th February, King Gyanendra Shah appealed for public support to lead the country towards unity, progress, and prosperity during a visit to Galeshwar Dham and Baglung Kalika. He mentioned that he abdicated the throne in 2008 after Nepal was declared a Republic not due to weakness but to witness peace in the country.

While the republican parties have announced plans to showcase their strength, supporters of the monarchy have informed the BBC that they are in talks about the roadmap for their movement.

The pro-monarchy rally in Nepal has gained momentum recently, drawing a large number of supporters. A political event organized to welcome former King Gyanendra has significantly impacted the situation. The rally, spanning approximately 8 kilometers from Tribhuwan International Airport to Maharajgunj, was widely covered by both domestic and international media. Notably, the 78-year-old former King Gyanendra interacted with people along the route, which took five hours to traverse.

This marked the first time that foreign media extensively reported on the mass gathering for the former king. Indian media outlets also showed keen interest in the event, highlighting the support and enthusiasm of well-wishers in Kathmandu.

Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Deshsanchar.com and a seasoned journalist with experience in India, noted that the Indian media portrayed an accurate depiction of the situation in Nepal and expressed curiosity about their analysis of the events.

Some analysts, like Ghimire, have emphasized that the ongoing process is an internal development in Nepal and cannot be influenced by foreign powers.

Narendra Modi, from the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, is currently serving as India's Prime Minister for the third time. Analysts who anticipate some level of Indian involvement in Nepal's significant changes argue that the developments in Nepal should not be seen in isolation.

Many experts have highlighted that the United States, a superpower, has recently reduced aid to Nepal, as the Trump administration has shifted towards a more trade-focused foreign policy. The opposition leaders of Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoist parties were shocked by the large rally in the capital and criticized it as a move by King Gyanendra to stir up trouble.

Unpopular Government

Prime Minister Oli, who also serves as the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), has been facing criticism from the public for the government's alleged corruption and its failure to deliver on promises to improve the economy and infrastructure of the country. Oli recently became embroiled in controversy when individuals were arrested for protesting against him, and the press credentials of two journalists were revoked for questioning him.

During a speech in Mahottari, Oli rejected the idea of a return to monarchy in Nepal. "There are some individuals calling for the reinstatement of the monarchy, but that is not feasible," the PM stated. He suggested that the former king should establish a political party and participate in elections. "If the former king believes he has popular support, he is free to form a party and run in elections while respecting the constitution," Oli remarked.

During his birthday celebrations on Friday, Madhav Kumar Nepal, the former Prime Minister of Nepal and Chairman of the CPN-Unified Socialist, stated that the monarchy is a thing of the past and there is no chance of its restoration.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, Chairman of the CPN-Maoist Centre, also expressed opposition to the idea of bringing back the monarchy, cautioning the former king against any 'foolish' actions.

Prachanda, who led the Maoist insurgency against the monarchy and served as Prime Minister three times, described the former king's rule as autocratic and emphasized that the people of Nepal had taken power away from him through their fight against his oppressive regime. "The people wrested power from the king and they know how to protect it," he stated.

Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda has warned the King that there will be serious consequences if he continues to hold anti-Republican rallies.

Nepali Congress senior leader Bimlendra Nidhi stated that the Federal Republic of Nepal cannot be changed and the return of the monarchy is only a fantasy. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli encouraged King Gyanendra to participate in elections and gain power through the people's vote.

Pro-monarchist party leaders called the event historic and urged the ruling parties to negotiate with the King to reinstate the monarchy in Nepal and eliminate federalism. RPP Chair Rajendra Lingden stated, "People have shown their support for the revival of the monarchy and are against the corruption brought about by the three political parties through the federal republic. If peaceful negotiations fail, the people will take action to abolish the federal republic."

Amidst the current division among monarchical forces, reports have emerged that supporters of the monarchy are attempting to unite. While there are differing views on who should lead this movement, there is a shared recognition of the need for such a unified front.

Restoration of Monarchy, out of the 14 parties in the House of Representatives, only the Rastriya Prajatantra Party seems to be in favor of the monarchy. Discussions have begun within the party about the structure of the movement and the potential leader.

Various names have been suggested in the media as possible leaders for the movement. However, Dhruv Bahadur Pradhan, a vice-chairman of the RPP, expressed uncertainty about the idea of selecting a coordinator and progressing with the movement.

"We have not made any decisions regarding leadership. It could be determined through mutual understanding. It is premature to claim that a decision has been made. There are also logistical challenges," he stated. "Ultimately, the people must take ownership of this. We will make decisions as we move forward."

However, there are discussions within the party about finding a leader who could be universally accepted, and a decision will be reached during a party meeting.

General Secretary Dhaval Shamsher Rana emphasized that the upcoming movement will require the support and cooperation of all, and a leader who is trusted by everyone. There have been ongoing divisions and disagreements among the various parties and groups supporting the restoration of the monarchy.

RPP Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa, who served as Home Minister during the 2062/2063 BS People's Movement, recently suggested that pro-monarchy forces should come together.

However, some pro-monarchist leaders who welcomed the former king back from Pokhara later showed divisions among themselves.

Durga Prasai, a leader and medical practitioner who participated in the demonstration, stated that he would not collaborate with RPP and RPP Nepal.

What made the monarchists enthusiastic?

Gyanendra, who had the rare opportunity to serve as king twice in Nepal's history, made a plea in a video message released on Democracy Day (February 19) for people to "support me if you want to save the country." Expressing dissatisfaction, he remarked, "Even though the country's system has changed, the citizens' situation remains the same."

The former king, who claimed to have relinquished his position and comforts for the benefit of the people, cautioned against viewing it as a sign of weakness.

"We have already made sacrifices to address national issues. Now, we are prepared to make any further sacrifices necessary for Nepal's progress," Shah's message declared. Gyanendra had been involved in various public events from Butwal to Pokhara in recent weeks.

These events attracted a "significant" turnout of ordinary citizens. The warm reception he received in Kathmandu and the subsequent discussions in national and international media appear to have further emboldened him.

How to take the current debate?

Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Deshsanchar.com, suggests that the lack of good governance has caused a decline in the popularity of political parties and an increase in support for the king, who has remained in the country despite the establishment of the republic.

He believes that the ongoing movement may lead to the emergence of a common leader, and the outcome will depend on the understanding reached during the movement. The king has called for unity among political parties, emphasizing that a decision cannot be made by one party alone.

Ghimire attributes the current situation to the citizens' frustration, anger, and optimism. Some question whether the competing forces, who are divided and have gathered in support of the king, have the ability to bring the movement to a conclusion that would restore the monarchy.

There is significant momentum in the movement. If someone attempts to make this issue their sole focus, they will be marginalized. Who will emerge as the leader of the movement? There is still a long road ahead, but the answer will eventually reveal itself."

He mentioned that in the days ahead, the king might seek support from various sectors of society, including the youth and the international community. He added, "Similar to the appeal made on Falgun 7, there may be a broader call for support. However, I do not foresee the king himself taking to the streets."

How did the monarchy come to an end

After the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, the king's powers were suspended on January 15, 2007, and an interim legislature was established.

On May 28, 2008, the monarchy was officially abolished by the first constituent assembly, and Nepal was rechristened as the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal.

Since the abolition of the monarchy in Nepal, Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' was elected as the Prime Minister in August 2008 in the first government formed.

The political landscape in Nepal has been unstable since becoming a Republic, with no Prime Minister completing a full five-year term.

Nepal has seen 8 Prime Ministers since 2008, with some being re-elected. Recently, there has been a rise in demonstrations by 'monarchist' political groups in Nepal, advocating for the reinstatement of the monarchy.

Former King Gyanendra Shah was welcomed by a large crowd of pro-monarchy parties and supporters upon his return to the capital from Pokhara, escorting him from the airport to his residence in Maharajgunj.

King Gyanendra took the throne for the second time on 19 Jestha 2058 BS following his brother's passing at the Narayanhiti Palace. His authority was at risk as he became more ambitious and sought to actively govern. In 2005, he dismissed the elected government and placed party leaders, including the prime minister, under house arrest.

In response, the parliamentary party and the Maoist rebels at the time signed a 12-point agreement in Delhi, reportedly brokered by India. This agreement led to King Gyanendra relinquishing power to political parties after a 19-day uprising in 2006.

The reinstated House of Representatives limited his powers, and the major parties had already committed to adopting a federal republican system of governance before the Constituent Assembly elections.

Challenges of geopolitics

Nepal is situated between the two large countries of India and China, presenting challenges for Nepalese rulers in managing relations with both neighbors.

Despite this, Nepal has a close and extensive relationship with India, with strong cultural and trade ties. India is Nepal's largest trading partner, accounting for over 80% of its foreign trade. However, rather than adopting a realistic foreign policy approach, Nepalese political leaders have often engaged in political games under the guise of neutrality.

Nepal declared itself a federal democratic republic in 2008, and since then, the country has seen the formation of 13 governments, with the current government being the third in office. The country's foreign policy often fluctuates depending on the ruling party.

Past events have demonstrated the challenges faced by the Nepalese government in balancing its relationships with India and China.

The question of whether the monarchy will be restored in Nepal remains unanswered, but the political situation in the country continues to be unsettled due to recent protests by pro-monarchy groups and a large rally attended by former King Gyanendra.